Short Term vs Long Term: Does Winning Now Hurt The Raptors Future?

Are teams banking on a lottery pick to change the
fortunes of their teams?

Before the 2013/14 NBA season started there had been a lot of debates, discussions, assumptions and even accusations about how many general managers and their respective teams were planning to make sure they secured high draft pick/s in the talent-filled 2014 draft. 

When Masai Ujiri traded Rudy Gay, the collective sentiment was that he was setting the ball in motion for a "tank". All but making sure that the team was going to lose enough games and almost guarantee a high draft pick selection.

With Rudy Gay, there was hope for the playoffs. Without Rudy Gay, there is hope for the future. Most people thought trading Gay was a sign that the team was giving up on the season but strangely enough, at least for the last month, they has responded with wins which, if the trend continues, will jeopardize the hopes of a high pick. When the season started I figured the Raptors had a better than average chance of sneaking into the playoffs with a seventh or eighth seed and thus almost eliminating a high draft pick. I am not sure how many fans felt about this but I was personally thrilled with the possibility of the Raptors going back to the playoffs for the first time in six years. I figured Rudy Gay -- with a full training camp, preseason, and laser surgery on his eyes to boot -- was going to be the final piece for a young Raptor squad that could make the post season, especially in the weak Eastern Conference. 

I completely understand that making the playoffs, especially this season, comes with a very high risk of not adding quality talent through the draft. The roster currently has some young talented players but none of them have the franchise-player talent level that can ultimately take a team to the playoffs, yearly. Up until Ujiri orchestrated the trade that sent Rudy Gay, Quicy Acy and Aaron Gray to the Sacramento Kings in exchange for Greivis Vasquez, John Salmons, Patrick Patterson and Chuck Hayes – I was all but certain that the Raptors had a chance to get a taste of the post season.

Instead, the team has somehow managed to become… well… a team! The addition of Vasquez has given Coach Casey more flexibility at the guard position. John Salmons adds a veteran presence that is very much a calming influence for DeMar DeRozan as he no longer has to fight for shots; Rudy Gay’s shot selection and shot-volume made the offence stagnant and this meant that the ball often ended in either Gays' or DeRozans' hands, as the shot clock winds down.

If I were in Ujiri's position, I would be both happy and sad about the current success of the team. On one hand I would want a top three pick which guarantees taking Parker, Wiggins or Julius Randle/Marcus Smart/Joel Embiid. On the other hand, I would be glad that the team is competing and winning games while working towards a goal of making the playoffs.

Changing the culture of the organization is something that teams need to learn. Only a handful of players can bring a winning culture to a team but most teams that want to be part of the yearly trip to the playoffs have to learn to assemble talent that can grow together and learn to win. This is what seems to be happening right now with the Raptors and I believe that if the trend of wins continues this year, it will add a special quality to the team that can only benefit the young players and the organization in the long run.

To me, a winning culture is just as important to an organization as much as a superstar player. A winning culture for the Raptors means that they will have what it takes to survive in case the lottery balls don't fall in their favor.

After all, a bottom five ranking at the end of the season only gives as high as a 25 per cent chance of the top three picks in the draft lottery.

REPOST >> Hot Spur: San Antonio Might Just be Unbeatable

Last year, I watched the Spurs shred opponents during the regular season and thought to myself, 'these guys are good enough to win the championship'. After all, they were tied for the best record with the Chicago Bulls and they had soundly beaten every team that were postseason contenders. Well, the outcome of the 11/12 NBA Finals proved once again that the real season begins when sixteen teams vie for the Larry O'Brien Trophy. I thought the match ups favored the Spurs throughout the playoffs - yes, even against the OKC Thunder! - but I was wrong. Spear-headed by Russell Westbrook, (Westbrooks injury and subsequent absence from the Thunder/Grizzlies series this year proved that the Thunder thrived on their speed which was primarily orchestrated by Westbook) OKC ran the Spurs off the court and exposed the inexperience of the Spurs young and athletic role players. 

What a difference a year makes......
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"I just think we're playing against a team that is at its peak, I don't see nobody beating them."

Those were the words of Al Jefferson, the 6'10 center for the Utah Jazz, after his team lost game 3 of the Western Conference playoffs by a score of 102-90. The series wrapped up last night as the San Antonio Spurs swept the Jazz, four games to none.

Jefferson's statement does have some truth to it because the Spurs are indeed a team that is playing at its very peak and they have been playing at this very high level all season long. The latter part of his statement - "I don't see nobody beating them." - forces one to wonder if any of the Western Conference teams that might be advancing to the next round can actually prove Jefferson wrong.

The Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC) are currently the only other team, aside from the aforementioned Spurs, to have advanced to the second round of the playoffs. Barring any sports miracles, the Lakers (up 3-1 versus the Denver Nuggets) and the Clippers (up 3-1 versus the Memphis Grizzlies), will both advance to the next round, as well. The Spurs might face the Clippers in the next round in what should be a very entertaining match-up, while the Lakers might advance to play OKC - an even more entertaining match-up.

How can the Spurs make it to the NBA finals if they, potentially, have to go through three teams with three different playing styles? Lets try to answer this question by beginning with the most probable match-up with the Clippers. It is evident that the acquisition of Chris Paul has given the once lowly Clippers a fighting chance of making it to the playoffs every year. The emergence and maturation of DeAndre Jordan also gives them a good center for years to come. Blake Griffin is the obvious reason for the teams turn around but he is still developing into a well rounded basketball player - a reliable jump shot and better free throw percentages are what's left to take his game to the next level. Outside of these three - and also if Randy Foye, Nick Young, Eric Bledsoe play really well and a healthy Caron Butler - the Clippers might just give the Spurs a minor headache. In the end though, they will find that they are lacking the defensive capabilities and the simple fact that their bench cannot match-up with the Spurs bench.

In a nut shell, the Spurs success during the season, and what will inevitably lead to their continued success in the playoffs is their depth. Let's move on from the Clippers by boldly claiming that the Spurs will win this - only if the Clippers finish off Memphis - series in six games. This leaves us with two possible opponents.

The Lakers or OKC? The Lakers have Kobe and that might be enough for some pundits to pick them to beat OKC and the Spurs. In order for this to happen,  Andrew Bynum has to be the focal point of the offense. This is not to say that Bynum should be the go to guy but rather that the offense should flow through him.

Subtract Stephen Jackson and you basically
have the same Spurs squad from the 11/12 season

OKC will most likely dispatch the rotating services of Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka on Bynum. If Bynum plays at the peak which he has displayed occasionally during the season, the OKC bigs (this includes an underrated defender in Nick Collison) will have their hands full. Pau Gasol is not the physical center that Bynum is but what he does have are skills that a rare for most big-men. It is obvious that the Lakers have the interior advantage between these two teams but the Thunder definitely have the upper hand on the wing and in the back court, with the collective efforts of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden and even Dereck Fisher (he is old but his knowledge of the Lakers and particularly Kobe gives OKC another edge) will prove too much for the Lakers.  So what could the outcome of this powerful tilt be? I predict that the team with the better bench will win it out in six or seven games. By all accounts, OKC has the better bench.

Bench production is key to winning and it is the reason why the Spurs will play OKC and defeat them in six games. Indeed, the Spurs truly are a balanced team and OKC is the only team that comes close to matching their depth in this playoffs - close but not as polished and balanced. The Spurs are doing it with both half court plays and fast break style of play and this is the main reason why they will be in the finals. They can run  their offense - the X's & O's -  better than any team out there and they can also run the fast break with Parker and Ginobili and the young new additions of Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard. Add Tiago Splitter, Boris Diaw, Stephen Jackson and the underrated shooting of Matt Bonner and Gary Neal to that mix and you have a team that can do it all with play calling and also on pure athleticism and good shooting. OKC has three great scorers in Durant, Westbrook and Harden but their strengths rely on one-on-one play making. The Spurs team defense should nullify them and force them to have to run a slower and more 'play-calling-based' offense - something which is evidently not their strength. And should OKC try to force the uptempo game, Coach Popovich will simply shift gears and match them with his athletic bench.

Barring any miracles, the prediction you have just read above will hold true. I agree with Al Jefferson, "I don't see nobody..." beating the Spurs either.