'09 NBA Playoffs: Lebron James vs. Dwight Howard

NASA must be like a proud but yet conflicted father right now! Two of their most human-like robots will be going head to head tonight in the Eastern Conference Finals, for the NBA Playoffs. I am sure they will be watching with keen interest from the command center.

Alright...enough of the silly attempt at a joke. I think I'm the only one that gets a giggle out of calling Lebron James and Dwight Howard, NASA designed robots. Although, these two super-athletes will not actually be guarding each another; it would really please me, and any sports fan out there to see anyone of these scenarios:

• Lebron attempting a ferocious dunk on Howard
• Dwight Howard blocking Lebron on a massive dunk attempt
• Lebron absolutely obliterating Howard on a dunk
• Howard returning the favor with a two-handed dunk on Lebron's dome

Take a look at the first picture from my last post and you will notice that it is absolutely possible to sit on Howard's face with a nasty dunk. It would be a lot more exciting if it were King James in that picture instead of Kobe. I am not taking anything away from the sick dunk by Kobe but.......a robot dunking on another robot...................................okay okay, I'm really going to stop about this now.

On to the analysis/prediction:

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
1.Cleveland vs 3. Orlando
It is simply human nature to put extra emphasis on current events. It is also human nature to put blinders on when observing something or someone that is absolutely dominant. This err of the way we think dilutes our judgment and and skews our reasoning.

Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have been very dominant during the season and they have been even more dominant during the playoffs. The effect that this is having on most fans and pundits is the feeling that the Cavs will be playing either the Nuggets or Lakers in the NBA Finals. Although the Orlando Magic struggles against the Celtics, this does not mean that the Cavs will sweep them like they did their first two series. Here are three reasons why this will not be a sweep for the Cavs:

1. Dwight Howard: Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao and Ben Wallace will be given the unenviable task of trying to contain Howard. Big Z is not athletic enough and might just end up being dunked on at least twice a game during this series. "Mop-head" Varejao is a very crafty defender. He is not physical enough to keep up but I can count on him flopping a few times to try and get Howard in foul trouble. Big Ben!! I have a theory about Ben Wallace. This a a tad bit controversial, so please take this with a grain of salt. I think Wallace was taking performance enhancing drugs when he was with the Pistons. My theory goes further that the league must have discovered this and told him to stop without revealing it to the media. Hence the rapid drop in athletic ability that now has him playing like a shell of his former self. I will reiterate this; this is 100% my opinion and not anything based on hear-say or facts. Wallace will be useless in guarding Howard. Well, not entirely. He will be put in the game to intentionally foul Howard to force him to make his free throws.
   
2. Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkolgu, Courtney Lee and J.J Redick. These players are match up problems unlike the cast of players that the Hawks and Heat have. Atlanta and Miami have players that are athletic but can not spread the floor with good shooting. This allowed the Cavaliers to double team and provide weak side help successfully without the fear of being burned by a plethora of good shooters. With Turkoglu often playing the point and Howard requiring double teams; the Magic will have a lot of ample opportunities to take and make open three point shots. The Cavs coaching staff will have to devise a defensive strategy to slow Howard and his group of talented shooters.
3. Home court! It's a forgone conclusion that the Cavs will win their games at home. Home court in my reason why this won't be a sweep is about the Magic at home. Orlando will at least win one game at home. The Magic have only lost twice at home in this playoffs....by a total of three points.

Now that I have established that this series will not require any fan to bring a broom to a game; nor will there be a need to use the word sweep after game three in Orlando. I must now attempt to determine who will win this series.

"The Orlando Magic are going to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers" said Charles Barkley

Sir Charles made this comment right after the Orlando Magic handily beat the Celtics in game seven on Monday. Referring back to my point that we at times make statements that are influenced by the most current events. We temporarily forget the value or impact of something that happened in the recent or distant past. I think the dominant fashion in which the Magic beat the Celtics in that game made Barkley feel that victory was imminent for Orlando.

I would have agreed with him if Lebron James were 6'5 instead of 6'8. I would have agreed with Chuck if King James were 225lbs instead of 260lbs. I would have agreed with him if this was last years version of Lebron that could not shoot well from the field, instead of this years version that is proving that jump shots from fifteen to twenty nine feet (yes, twenty nine! Dude hits shots from one or two steps from mid-court) are like layups to him.

Finally, I would have agreed with Charles Barkley if Lebron James did not give me this feeling that he wants it (championship) a little bit more than Dwight Howard. I have watched every Cavs game and I have noticed a pattern with James. Whenever a team goes on a run against the Cavs; Lebron simply puts his head down and becomes aggressive. He drives to the hoop and gets a result. A basket, a foul or both. Point here is that momentum stops for the opposing team.

My prediction: Cleveland wins series 4-2

Sportacularly yours,

The Vicarious Athlete

'09 NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Finals Analysis/Predictions

It is really nice to see that the Orlando Magic finally played up to their skill level for a full forty eight minutes last night in game seven against the Boston Celtics.
Why did I pick the Celtics to win the series? Well, the one and only reason is not because I thought the C's were a better team without Kevin Garnett to beat the Magic but rather because Orlando is much like the Los Angeles Lakers in the sense that they both have a Jekyl and Hyde complex to their overall team personality. Both are very good teams that are stacked and should be putting other teams like the Celtics (sans KG) and Rockets (sans Yao Ming) away relatively easy. But for some reason they (Magic and Lakers) have been displaying a tendency to play horribly at times.

I find it utterly amazing that the four remaining teams in this years playoffs can be paired up in twos when it comes to their playing personalities. I have already alluded to the fact that Lakers and Magic are similar with their off and on play. The Cleveland Cavaliers and the Denver Nuggets are quite the opposite of them. Cleveland and Denver have relatively played at a consistent level so far. The Cavs swept the Atlanta Hawks (their second sweep in a row), while the Nuggets disposed of the Dallas Mavericks in five games. Both teams have been able to impose their will on their opponents and have won most of their games by double digits.

With the Conference Finals about to start on Tuesday, the question I have is, which team tendency/personality will be most dominant. Will the Lakers and Magic continue to play poorly at times. Will they turn it on just enough to win a series, much like the game sevens last night in which they both played really well. Will Denver and Cleveland be dominant in their respective series against the inconsistent two?

Here's what I think will happen in the West. My Eastern Conference analysis/prediction will be out by Wednesday morning.

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
1. Los Angeles vs 2. Denver
In the back of my head, I am thinking that it would have been a better situation for the Denver Nuggets if the Lakers had won their series in five or six games. The fact that Kobe and his team mates had to dig deep in order to put the Houston Rockets away, means the Lakers have woken up and realized how good they are when firing on all cylinders. We all know that fear and a good kick in the butt can motivate us to take a step back and re-evaluate our approach to our situation. After cruising by the Utah Jazz in five games, the Lakers became lackadaisical in their approach against the Rockets. When the Rockets lost Yao Ming at the end of game three, a game in which they took bad shots and did not play good defense. The Lakers performance in the next game was absolutely bizarre for every one that was watching it. Their loss in game four was the much needed kick in the butt. They woke up for game five by blowing out Houston with a forty point margin. Fortunately, they lost game six......yes, I said fortunately!!! I say this because their inability to close out the Rockets in game six resulted in their elevated play in game seven.

Will game seven be the launching pad that the Lakers need in order for them beat the Nuggets?

Carmelo Anthony is flat out the best scorer in the league. I will give you guys a little while to let that sink in.............I hope that was enough time. I did not say best player. I said best scorer. Kobe can knock down his shots when he needs to. Lebron can simply out muscle almost anyone to get his shot. D-Wade does too much dribbling to get his shot and is still not much of a shooter. Carmelo Anthony is way more smoother and polished as a scorer than his counterparts. Nobody uses the jab step better than he does. His elevation and point of shot release is near perfect. If you have been paying attention like I have; you will notice that he almost never fades away for his shots. He simply uses his dribble to effectively create space and then just goes straight up for his shot.

This is not about Carmelo though. The reason I seem to be pouring out adoration for him has a more to do with how his team is a lot like him in the scoring department. The Nuggets score effortlessly against most defenses. The efficiency of Melo's Jab step brings to mind the efficiency of his supporting cast of players. Chris "Birdman" Anderson, J.R Smith and Anthony Carter are about as efficient as it gets. They play with high intensity at all times and have caused havoc on both sides of the court. Nene and Kenyon Martin are two of the most physical post defenders in the league. Dahntay Jones has surprised many people with his shooting but it's no surprise that it's his defense that will earn him the task of guarding Kobe in this series. Jones is very athletic and a good defender but the possibility of going head to head with Kobe is a daunting task. Good luck Dahntay!!!

The Lakers might have gotten the rude awakening that they needed and they will be determined not to play like they did in the Houston series. Denver has had problems with defense in the past but they have always been a good offensive team. So far, in this years playoffs, they have been tough on all facets of their defensive game. If Martin can make Dirk Nowitzki work really hard for every point that he gets, then how in the world is Pau Gasol (who is not as polished offensively as Dirk) going to be able to help the Lakers in the post. Andrew Bynum can't seem to stay out of foul trouble. Although he is much taller than Nene, I think that Nene's physical style of play will render the young Bynum helpless for the Lakers cause. Chauncey Billups is way too savvy and way too good at his job to let the recent success of the Nuggets to get in their heads. He will make sure that they are well prepared for this battle. I know Kobe is great and the Lakers "can" be explosive but the Nuggets are almost always explosive. Scoring comes naturally to the Nuggets and defense is finally something they pay a lot of attention to.
My Prediction: Nuggets win series 4-3

Sportacularly yours,

The Vicarious Athlete

2009 NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference 2nd Round Analysis/Predictions

The Miami Heat played a series that looked on paper as if it should have been a cake walk for their opponent, the Atlanta Hawks. Dwayne Wade proved once again why he should be (at least in my opinion) the league MVP. He simply carried a team that wouldn't even have sniffed the playoffs but he and his supporting cast of over achievers pushed the "Jerkyll and Hyde" Hawks to a seventh game.

It would have been GREAT to see Wade go up against his good friend Lebron James.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Cleveland vs 4. Atlanta
Recent history of the Atlanta Hawks in the playoffs will have you believe that they are an enigmatic team that find ways to play at a much higher level at home and then play a woeful brand of basketball on the road. They either blow you out or get blown out. In last years playoffs, they pushed the much better Boston Celtics to the bring of elimination. This year, they let a team that was pound for pound not on their level to take them to a game seven. Will they continue their perplexing style of play and keep the trend going? My answer to that will be revealed shortly!

Whenever a player or team is very good or basically considered by most to be great; the consensus tends to have blinders on and in turn make predictions that seem on the surface to be very logical. In this case, the very good player is Lebron James and the team is his Cavaliers. The "presumed" logical thinking here is that Lebron is too good (great is more like the right adjective here) and his supporting cast too strong for them not to have a easy time with their opponent. Not as easy as beating on the Pistons but presumed easy nonetheless. He definitely has a much better supporting cast than he did two years ago when he led his team into the NBA Finals against the San Antonio Spurs. The tone that you might be catching from this paragraph would be that I think that the Cavs will not be sweeping this series versus the Hawks. I have been discussing/arguing with a few friends about the outcome of this series. The consensus is a sweep or maybe that the Hawks will win at least one game at home. I think that the way this series will unfold will be determined by the win/loss margin in the second game.

The Best player on the Hawks is Joe Johnson but he sometimes disappears for long stretches and often is lackadaisical on offense. When Lebron takes it easy on offense, it is often because he is setting up his team mates and playing smart and aggressive off the ball defense. He (James) is the arguably the best player in the league and because of his dominant performances that I will not waste my penmanship on any of his supporting cast....well, except to say that they are better than the supporting cast that Joe Johnson has.

My Prediction: Game one will be a blow out but game two will be close. Cleveland will win both games but will lose a close game three in Atlanta. The two close games back to back will give the Hawks the confidence they need to feel like they can win more than just one game. When confidence is on high, teams and players tend to play beyond their talent level but that confidence can not sustain them for a prolonged period of time. They do get their second win but that's were it ends. The Cavaliers win the series 4-2.

2. Boston vs 3. Orlando
I might have predicted the Boston Celtics to win their first round series but I sure was hoping that the Bulls would upset them. I try not to be biased in my writing and I think I have been able to do that so far. I want the Magic to win this series but I am afraid that this might just be wishful thinking. Orlando is a good team but they are inconsistent and can easily be considered a hit or miss when it comes to how hard or smart they play.

The weaknesses in Dwight Howard's game is magnified in the playoffs. His lack of post up moves and his proneness for turnovers makes it hard for me to give him the edge over Kendrick Perkins. Howard is still learning how to effectively exploit or pass out of double teams. If you study him whenever he is double teamed, you will notice that he can pass out to the man closest to him on the wing but if the defense collapse to his side, his passes at times will result in turn overs. Perkins is not the focal point of his team offensively and this makes it easy for him to focus on defense, rebounds and garbage points. His job on this series will be to physically frustrate Howard and put him in constant foul trouble. Easier said than done because Howard is a freakishly athletic robot designed by NASA....(pssst...so is Lebron). Howard will average a double double and in turn get Perkins in foul trouble. If Perkins sits for too long then the Magic have strong chance. Am I hinging the success or failure of the Celtics on Kendrick Perkins? No, but I am saying that his role in this series is going to be more elevated than usual.

The back court play for both teams is in favor of the Celtics because Rajon Rondo will have a field day against this team and also because Rafer Alson sucks on defense. Courney Lee is the better option at the back up point guard spot (Tyronn Lue is on the team but......it's Tyronn Lue!!!) but he is not expected to even play in the first game of the series after having surgery to repair a fracture sinus bone. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen should be pleased that they will be playing in a series against a team that sometimes looks as if they are allergic to playing defense.
My Prediction: Celtics win series 4-2


Sportacularly yours,

The Vicarious Athlete

2009 NBA Playoffs: Western Conference 2nd Round Analysis/Prediction

Right of the bat, I'll say this about the San Antonio Spurs. The age of this team.....along with a few key injuries.....is the reason why the Dallas Mavericks won the series in five games. I am not taking anything away from the Mavericks but I still think that if Tim Duncan were completely healthy and if Manu Ginobili were in the line up; this series would have been a lot closer and eventually would have ended in the Spurs favor.

The Mavs can count there blessings and thank the basketball gods that Josh Howard played a spectacular brand of bball and also that Erick Dampier finally realized that he is a legit seven footer and should be averaging more than seven rebounds per game. Jose Barea is the little guy that managed to keep Tony Parker occupied on the defensive end but ultimately could not stop him from scoring at will (quite frankly, no one can stop Parker from scoring). Barea was excellent in putting the pressure on the Spurs and I think his play on both sides of the court distracted Parker on numerous occasions from being a play maker but rather made him feel like he needed to score a lot of points.

Kudos to Mavs coach Rick Carlisle for knowing exactly how to use his pieces. He confused the Spurs by starting Barea in games three to five; playing him along side Jason Kidd quite a bit. This move created mismatches and forced the Spurs to try and keep up with the Mavs brand of small ball. Unfortunately the Spurs did not have enough small play makers to keep up with the Mavs. Now this leads me to the my Western Conference predictions. What the heck is Coach Carlisle going to come up with when they face the Denver Nuggets?

WESTERN CONFERENCE
2. Denver vs 6. Dallas
I picked the Hornets to win the series versus the Nuggets. Why? Well, for starters I thought that Coach Byron Scott would actually use his bench in the series. The Nuggets played their ultra athletic bench players and that was a big reason why that series was one sided in Denver's favor. These same bench players are going to have a field day against the Mavericks. It seems like Carlisle will keep Barea in the starting line up because he has simply out play Antoine Wright and can cause match up headaches for most teams on both offense and defense. This means that Jason Terry is the only major threat that the Mavs have coming off the bench. Brandon Bass is no chop liver but he does not do so well on defense against teams that run and spread the court as well as the Nuggets do. The aforementioned Wright will be needed to play above and beyond expectations. I strongly doubt that he will. Dallas will need a stellar performance from Dirk Nowitzki in order to keep this series from looking anything like the Nuggets first round beat down on the Hornets. Chris "Birdman" Andersen and Kenyon Martin will make Dirk work for every basket he gets. Since Josh Howard is not known to be a good defender and so I'll assume that he will not be guarding Carmelo Anthony. Regardless of whom it is that is assigned to guard Melo, I predict high scoring games for him and Chauncey Billups. Speaking of Billups; Mr. Big Shot was very accurate from downtown in the first series. 65% makes him a deadly threat that should continue to kill defenders that slack off him. The deference in this series will be the team that is more prolific offensively. Both teams can score in bunches but there is no team in the playoffs right not that can stretch a ten point lead to twenty or thirty points better than the Denver Nuggets.
My Prediction: Nuggets win series 4-1

1. Los Angeles vs 5. Houston
Get your popcorn ready folks!!! I am predicting that this series is going to be just as exciting as the Bulls/Celtics match up. How can it not be? It's an epic clashing of two stacked teams! There is a plethora of big men and wing players in this series to satisfy all your basketball playoff needs.
The Rockets are the best defensive team in this years playoffs but they have also surprised most people by finding the perfect medium between playing "big-man" ball and also running the fast paced offense. The addition of journeyman Von Wafer .....(by the way, his real name is Vakeaton Quamar. I understand why he changed his name but....VON WAFER?!?! Actually, I think it would have been better if he had kept his real name. It sounds and resonates much better than VON WAFER???)......the addition of Wafer has been a pleasant surprise. Turns out that he almost beat out Lebron James in the McDonald’s All-America Slam Dunk. From my research, it seems that most people think he should have won but Lebron got it because he was more popular....even back then. Wafer will be coming of the bench to do more of what he did against the Portland Trailblazers. Score at will and infuse energy and athleticism. The Lakers will counter with Shannon Brown. Brown has beaten out Jordan Farmer for more minutes lately because he is more explosive on the wing but also because he has surprised everyone, including his own teammates by shooting really well. Fifty and sixty seven percent from the field and beyond the arc respectively. Trevor Ariza's job in the starting line up is not to score but he has been shooting really well from downtown also at a clip sixty percent. I am not sure if the hot shooting will continue for these two guys but one thing I can count on is for them to bring the energy needed for them to succeed.

Andrew Bynum will finally get to prove himself in his match up with Yao Ming. I am not saying that he will succeed in actually outplaying Yao but he will have plenty chances to try. I look for DJ Mbenga to get some playing time so as to give Bynum a breather and prevent him from constantly being in foul trouble. Luis Scola was known to be a better player in Europe than Pau Gasol and I think that he will try to convince the North American fans that he truly is better. They are country men and they both play for their national team and thus I am very certain that they are both looking forward to guarding each other. Scola is way more crafty on offense and very smart on defense. Gasol is hands down a very good offensive play and can hold his own on the other side as long as the play is not too physical. I look for Scola to be as physical as possible in other to get in Pau's head and hopefully throw him off his game. Shane Battier will on occasion be assigned to guard Gasol. I look for Battier to keep up his good shooting.

It has often been said that defense wins championships. The fact behind these two teams is that only one them plays really good defense. Ron Artest plays for this team and I can imagine that he is anxiously waiting for the games to begin so he can get all up in Kobe Bryant's face. A few days ago, Artest made a comment that Brandon Roy of the Trailblazers is the best player that he has ever guarded. This obviously and in my opinion was a deliberate omission of Kobe. I think this is an attempt by Artest to lure Bryant into playing a lot of one on one ball. If the mind games work, then this series will most likely end in Houstons favor. The Lakers are a much better team when every one is involved in the offense. They are even more lethal when Kobe does his"I'm taking over the game now" thing in the waning moments of a game. The Rockets are a more physical team and that can work in their favor if they don't get in foul trouble. Fouls will be the difference in this series. Artest's history for being a knucklehead will not help when getting the benefit of the doubt type of calls. I am tempted to say that this series will go seven games but I cannot ignore Artest woeful shot selection and Yao's pending foul troubles.
My prediction: Lakers win 4-2


Sportacularly yours,

The Vicarious Athlete