The Heat Model vs. the OKC Model

With the NBA draft less than twenty-four hours away,  I wanted to open up a dialogue on something closely related to the draft. The issue regarding what some NBA pundits feel will be the new model for winning the NBA championship.  Will the Miami Heat model entice other teams to seek instant success by clearing cap-space with the hopes of luring two or three big name players? Of course there will be some attempt by a few teams; the NBA is sometimes called the 'copy-cat' league but ultimately, this model will not yield the same reward as the Miami Heat.

Drafting well in the NBA will often result in post-season success!

Take for example the Oklahoma City Thunder and their recent run to before falling short of winning it all. They are the modern day epitome of how an NBA team should build for a bright future - draft really well and then surround the young talents with a few veteran players to round out this important but elusive formula for building a team. Another team that is following this model is the Chicago Bulls (hoping Derrick Rose makes a full recovery). The last eight NBA championship teams have all had star players that were drafted  by their respective teams; from the 2004-2005 season, the list includes Tim Duncan, Dwyane Wade, Paul Pierce, Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitzki. Although the Miami Heat just won their championship through the 'Superstar Acquisition Model' (SAM), they had to go through a formidable OKC team that is on the cusp of becoming a consistent opponent of any Eastern Conference team (ahem.....Miami?) in the Finals, for the next few years.

A lot has been made about this Heat model of winning the championship that they are ushering in a controversial new era of team building in basketball. I for one think this is all nonsense! This formula is like lightening in a bottle that worked for the Heat but history and other factors will likely not favor other teams and players that might try this model (ahem...New York Knicks  a la Melo and Stoudemire). The formula for relative success in the NBA still falls on drafting well and trading well for pieces that balances out the roster. The Heat Model might have worked this season  but the fact still remains that teams like the the Oklahoma City Thunder are doing it the smart way; one might even say the right way (depending on the context and who you ask).

Trades are part of the game and one cannot separate it from how teams build and develop but that is not what SAM is all about. It is about the failed attempt of the 03/04 Lakers signing Karl Malone and Gary Payton to join Shaq and Kobe. It is also about the 96/97 Houston Rockets bringing in Charles Barkley to join Olajuwon and Drexler - this experiment lasted for two season with no trip to the finals. Drexler retired but the Rockets tried the SAM once more by bringing Scottie Pippen on board. The result was another season without a championship. In other words, this model has more failures than it has successes.

SAM worked for the Heat because it was the right timing with the right players. Chances of the timing being right and the availability of the right players aligning like this has a very slim probability of reoccurring. OKC has the right model and it might pay off next year when they face the Heat again.

(Ahem, that's a bold prediction!)

On a related note:

I would like to congratulate the Miami Heat.........actually, I would like to congratulate LeBron James on winning his first championship and in the process, temporarily silencing the critics and what seemingly looks like half the population of North America. In my honest opinion, it was well deserved. I was never a LeBron hater but more of an unbiased observer of all things LBJ. I scolded and applauded him when either was genuinely warranted. He is definitely undeserving of the level of hate that gets thrown at him - s0me of it is warranted but not that much!

...and what about the Raptors draft?

As for the draft itself, I am refraining from making any predictions about the Raptors but I will let my opinion be known. I have read all about the Dion Waiters and the Damian Lillard possibilities but the player that intrigues me the most is Royce White. White is projected to be drafted in the mid to late first round - he is a 6'8 forward that can do it all. He led is Iowa State Cyclones in points, rebounds, assist, steals and blocks and has the tenacious mentality that the Raptors really need. Although there have been rumblings that Waiters has the makings of the second coming of Dwyane Wade, the fact is that Waiters potential is erratic at best. He could end up being a poor mans D.Wade -  which is still very good - or end up being an exact replica of Smush Parker. Nuff said!

It would be ideal if the Raptors could work a trade in order to secure another pick before the twenty-first pick - where he is being predicted to be picked by the Celtics. I would trade Ed Davis because I thing White is already a better basketball package and has a higher developmental ceiling than Davis.

Selecting Waiters with the 8th pick would be nice but the icing on the cake would be orchestrating a trade that would somehow allow the Raptors to pick Royce White.

Hot Spur: San Antonio Might Just be Unbeatable

"I just think we're playing against a team that is at its peak, I don't see nobody beating them."

These were the words that came out of the mouth of Al Jefferson, the 6'10 center for the Utah Jazz, after his team lost game 3 of the Western Conference playoffs by a score of 102-90. The series wrapped up last night as the San Antonio Spurs swept the Jazz, four games to none.

Jefferson's statement does hold some truth to it because the Spurs are indeed a team that is playing at its very peak. They actually have been playing at this very high level all season long. The latter part of his statement - "I don't see nobody beating them." - forces one to ponder if any of the Western Conference teams that might be advancing to the next round can actually prove Jefferson wrong.

The Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC) are currently the only other team - aside from the aforementioned Spurs - to have advanced to the second round of the playoffs. Barring any sports miracles, the Lakers (up 3-1 versus the Denver Nuggets) and the Clippers (up 3-1 versus the Memphis Grizzlies), will both advance to the next round, as well. The Spurs might face the Clippers in the next round in what should be a very entertaining match-up, while the Lakers might advance to play OKC - an even more entertaining match-up.

How can the Spurs make it to the NBA finals if they, potentially, have to go through three teams with three different playing styles? Lets try to answer this question by beginning with the most probable match-up with the Clippers. It is evident that the acquisition of Chris Paul has given the once lowly Clippers a fighting chance of making it to the playoffs every year. The emergence and maturation of DeAndre Jordan also gives them a good center for years to come. Blake Griffin is the obvious reason for the teams turn around but he is still developing into a well rounded basketball player - a reliable jump shot and better free throw percentages are what's left to take his game to the next level. Outside of these three - and also if Randy Foye, Nick Young, Eric Bledsoe play really well and a healthy Caron Butler - the Clippers might just give the Spurs a minor headache. In the end though, they will find that they are lacking the defensive capabilities and the simple fact that their bench cannot match-up with the Spurs bench.

In a nut shell, the Spurs success during the season, and what will inevitably lead to their continued success in the playoffs is their depth. Let's move on from the Clippers by boldly claiming that the Spurs will win this - only if the Clippers finish off Memphis - series in six games. This leaves us with two possible opponents.

The Lakers or OKC? The Lakers have Kobe and that might be enough for some pundits to pick them to beat OKC and the Spurs. In order for this to happen,  Andrew Bynum has to be the focal point of the offense. This is not to say that Bynum should be the go to guy but rather that the offense should flow through him.

OKC will most likely dispatch the rotating services of Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka on Bynum. If Bynum plays at the peak which he has displayed occasionally during the season, the OKC bigs (this includes an underrated defender in Nick Collison) will have their hands full. Pau Gasol is not the physical center that Bynum is but what he does have are skills that a rare for most big-men. It is obvious that the Lakers have the interior advantage between these two teams but the Thunder definitely have the upper hand on the wing and in the back court, with the collective efforts of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden and even Dereck Fisher (he is old but his knowledge of the Lakers and particularly Kobe gives OKC another edge) will prove too much for the Lakers.  So what could the outcome of this powerful tilt be? I predict that the team with the better bench will win it out in six or seven games. By all accounts, OKC has the better bench.

Bench production is key to winning and it is the reason why the Spurs will play OKC and defeat them in six games. Indeed, the Spurs truly are a balanced team and OKC is the only team that comes close to matching their depth in this playoffs - close but not as polished and balanced. The Spurs are doing it with both half court plays and fast break style of play and this is the main reason why they will be in the finals. They can run their offense - the X's & O's -  better than any team out there and they can also run the fast break with Parker and Ginobili and the young new additions of Daniel Green and Kawhi Leonard. Add Tiago Splitter, Boris Diaw, Stephen Jackson and the underrated shooting of Matt Bonner and Gary Neal to that mix and you have a team that can do it all with play calling and also on pure athleticism and good shooting. OKC has three great scorers in Durant, Westbrook and Harden but their strengths rely on one-on-one play making. The Spurs team defense should nullify them and force them to have to run a slower and more 'play-calling-based' offense - something which is evidently not their strength. And should OKC try to force the uptempo game, Coach Popovich will simply shift gears and match them with his athletic bench.

Barring any miracles, the words you have just read above will hold true. I agree with Al Jefferson, I don't see nobody beating the Spurs either.

LeBron, Please Stop Passing with the Game on the Line!

LeBron James is a great passer of the ilk of Magic Johnson but he might need to look for his own shot more often when the game is on the line. Actually, he just needs to heave up a game-on-the-line shot! I do not care if he has to go 1 on 5 to do this. It really doesn't matter right now if he gets a clean look at the basket but I say he heaves it from mid-court if he has to. Please, just attempt one to appease the basketball 'know-it-alls'.

He needs to do this so that the otherwise great statistical season that he his having - averages of 28ppg, 8rpg and 7apg, with almost 2spg while shooting over 50% from the field and over 42% from distance - does not become somewhat tainted by all this talk about a lack of late game heroics.

Before I go any further, lets take a look at some stats - not the perception that one has from seeing LeBron pass a possible game winning shot during this years (2012) All-Star game, and most recently the March 2nd game against the Utah Jazz in which he - again - opted to make the pass rather than take the shot. The fact is that LeBron has actually taken 'game-on-the-line' shots before and has actually made quite a few in his esteemed career. According to stats gathered by the good folks at 82games.com, from the 03-04 to the 08-09 season, LeBron has actually taken 31 'game-on-the-line' shots and has made 17 of them; that is a respectable tally of 34%. It was also noted that Kobe Bryant has the most 'game-on-the-line' misses during that span.

The notation about Kobe proves that fans have a penchant for remembering the great 'makes' over numerous 'misses'. They also have knack for taking note when a great player continuously passes up these 'greatness' opportunities. This is the risk of perception that LBJ is toiling with - that many fans and pundits alike will keep harping on this issue because they are witnessing a great player who seems to be building a reputation as a player that defers to others, when taking the last shot should be something he innately craves.

All the greats have this innate desire to want the ball during the closing moments of a game. Michael Jordan seldom passed up an opportunity to be his teams closer - he used his superior athletic and leaping ability to create a enough room to elevate over his defender for a shot. Whether contested or not, almost everyone expected and wanted Jordan to take the shot; and Kobe is not different. So what makes LeBron - whom I think is arguably the most physically gifted basketball player on the planet - so different?

Well, LeBron is not that different. Lets return once more to the sample data provided above - the stats supports the argument that King James would rather make the correct basketball decision but does not shy away from taking the potential game winning shot. Based on the numbers taken from the sample period, LeBron, Vince Carter and Kobe are the top three players with fifty or more game winning attempts. Of the three, LeBrons' percentage is better than both Carter and Kobe; it should be noted that Kobe's actually percentage is only 25%.

So why am I suggesting that LeBron needs to hold on to the ball - by all means necessary - during the fading moments of a close game? Here is the answer:

When the Heat played the Jazz on March 2nd, with 4.5 seconds left on the clock and the heat down by one point. A play was drawn for none other than King James himself. The Jazz seemed to be playing a soft zone defence. LeBron receives the inbound pass with Josh Howard trailing around a pick. Paul Millsap is at the top of the key protecting against a drive to the basket. LeBron takes one dribble and bounce passes the ball to Udonis Haslem - for the record, Haslem was open and is a very reliable shot maker from that range - who takes the shot and misses.

From the video footage, a argument can be made that LeBron could have dribbled one or two more times because Howard was trailing from his right and Millsap was on his heels. A step back and elevation would have given him a good enough shot for a game winning attempt. He should have taken the shot because he was on fire and had scored 17 points in the fourth quarter alone. He should have taken the shot because, pound for pound with all the skills packed into his 6'8 and 260 pounds frame, he can get almost anywhere he wants on the court and shoot over almost any defender. This was a bad basketball decision.

But this should not be how he is perceived during close game moments. It is unbecoming of great basketball players to be perceived as not being clutch - worse is to be perceived as shying away from clutch moments. One of the Jazz commentators uttered these words right after the shot from Haslem clanked off the rim: "He passed it again."

This is what I am afraid LeBron's 'clutch-legacy' might become. A great player that is 'perceived' as being reluctant to take 'game-on-the-line' shots when all he is doing is making the right basketball decision.

Although the stats paint a different picture, the reality is that public opinion rarely takes the time to examine the stats. So I ask one more time; LeBron, please chuck-up a couple 'game-on-the-line' shot attempts, because the perception is becoming too loud and is drowning out the stats that prove otherwise.