The Game In Transition/Success Is On The Wings.

Basketball is a game that is most enjoyed when it's in transition. Perpetual motion and fast breaking styles were the norm back in the 80's. Teams were reaching the hundred point mark by the end of the third quarter and most centers in the game back then could run the floor like small forwards and shooting guards. The game went through a change during the mid nineties when team execs felt the need to slow down the game and thought that big centers that clogged the lane was the ticket to success.

I have been following basketball for a long time and I have often heard many experts state that in order to win a championship, a team needs a dominating big man. A good center that can go to work in the low post and draw double teams in order to open up the perimeter game for the wing players. I couldn't disagree more with this notion. Maybe this could have been a requirement back in the 70's and 80's but the game of basketball has evolved since then. These days, the game is dominated by ultra-athletic wing men and forwards with the skill set of some wing players. The majority of young centers coming into the league today have a paucity of skill sets. In other words, they are extremely raw and require a few years before they become.......ripe!!! Even after maturation, these new centers will not be able to dominate and take over a game as the centers of old used to. After Shaquile O'Neal retires, the game of basketball will be rid of the very last player to clog the middle and slow down the game. I should note that I am not writing this to bash O'Neal and other great centers. I am just noticing a trend that can not be ignored. In order for most teams to be successful, they will need to have good wing players and role playing or moderately talented post player.

Shaquile O'Neal, the last true big man will retire in the next couple of years and thus will end the string of dominant big men to play in the league. Shaq's pending retirement will officially close the chapter on a long line of great centers. Centers like Moses Malone, Patrick Ewing, Wilt Chamberlain, David Robinson, Willis Reed, Kareem Abdul Jabbar and my favorite player of all time; Hakeem Olajuwon. These big men were the cornerstone of their respective teams and even though they did not all win a championship ring in their careers, it was a certainty that their teams would have been worse off without them.

A few years ago the Phoenix Suns brought back a trend that was last used by the New Jersey Nets with Jason Kidd running the point; and before the Nets, it was the Golden State Warriors with their RUN TMC brand of basketball. None of these teams had a traditional big man guarding the post. Instead, they ran an offence that required fast and athletic wing players that could improvise and create something out of erratic play. More and more teams are realizing that in order to stay competitive, they will need to find a way to incorporate various elements of the run and gun style that is predicated on being athletic on the wing. With this style of basketball, traditional big men will become seldom used and often will be relegated to being the grab-a-rebound and the block-a-shot role. In order for teams today to be successful, they must invest in their perimeter play instead of their post play. I am not suggesting that the post player will become obsolete in the new NBA but rather, the center position will become more of a complimentary one to the wing position. Teams will still want and need big men but the focus will be on a big man that can run the floor, grab rebounds and get garbage points though put backs.

Here is further breakdown of my analysis. In the closing moments of a very tight game, a wing player can provide more offensive options for his teammates. A dribble drive offense requires perpetual motion from all members of the team by creating mismatches and confusion because it draws positional players away from their guarding assignments and comfort zone. It requires that the point guard bring the ball up the middle and passing to the wing players. The wing player now has a plethora of options based on how the defense reacts. He can choose to shoot; if his man leaves enough room to get a shot off. Drive to either his left or right; if his man rushes at him in anticipation of a shot. This dribble-drive will draw the opposing post players to collapse on him. He can now elevate to get his shot off in the middle of the key, pass to his very open big man, kick the ball out to the baseline or top of key for an open shot, or......another dribble drive possibility. Many teams in the league will soon be adjusting and installing a variation of the dribble drive offense that sometimes looks like a team is fast breaking at all times. It will be a revelation one day when the catalyst wing man in this scenario is actually a big man a la "Disco" Dirk Nowitzki.

Did I say revelation. As in, it will one day happen? Pardon me because "it" already happens. Albeit, only a few teams have players that combine the physical stature with this skill set.

The new breed of centers will player more like Dirk Nowitzki. They will be able to shoot the long ball, put the ball on the floor and dribble to the hoop from twenty feet out. They will be versatile like kevin Garnett and play defense on a point guard from half court. Block shots and grab the rebound in one move and then lead the fast break. The new big man will play more like a 6'6 wing man.

The game has changed a few times in the last twenty years. The influx of young players coming into the league that knew how to dunk before they made their first three point shot is forcing teams to play a game that is transition in style. This makes for a very exiting brand of basketball for the fans that want to see more running and gunning. Teams will evolve and almost every positional player will be interchangeable with almost all the positions; it is my opinion that some day in the near future, teams will look to think further outside of the box (Pun intended...Get it??.....C'mon!!!The box. As in the low post being known as "the box") when it comes to the type of players that will best fit their style on offense.

Ten years from now, you and I might go to a basketball game and hear the announcer introduce the starting lineup for our team.......

....starting at small forward, 7 foot 2 from Timbuktuuuuu...........

You look at me and I look and you. We simultaneously chime "our starting wing man is 7'2. That's amazing!"

That's when the NBA would truly be "were amazing happens!!!"

...ahem. Not saying it isn't amazing as it is right now.

Sportacularly yours,

The Vicarious Athlete

Expectations on high. Way too high!!!

I have a question for all Raptor fans out there. I need an honest answer that requires an unbiased mind frame during this process.

Here's my question. Aside from Jose Calderon, Chris Bosh and Jermaine O'Neal, whom else on the Raps current starting line-up would be a starter on any other NBA squad?

I'll give you sometime to go over the entire roster. I bet you are thinking of bad teams like the Bobcats, Timberwolves and Clippers - comparing them with the Raps, thinking that these teams roster are just as bad. If you can't come up with any player that deserves to be starting alongside the three mentioned above; then how come there is such a high expectation for the team to do so well and make the playoffs this season.

I will confess that I was blinded by love at the beginning of the season when I said this in an earlier post: "My prediction: 49-33 record, finish 4th or 5th in the east and lose in the second round to...........????." Well, since then my eyes have been opened. Here's a small analysis of three Raptor players that should not be starting for the squad or almost any other team.

Jamario Moon would only be getting spot minutes on most NBA teams. Somewhere around 10 - 15 minutes max, coming off the bench. Moon is arguably the most athletically gifted player on the team but he has serious problems with his lateral movements. He settles too often on defence by allowing his man to blow by him and then he attempts to block the player from behind. This usually results in him either getting called for a foul, his man scoring or drawing the Raps big men (Bosh and O'Neal) away from the basket to the baseline or top of the key. This opens up numerous back door passes for dunks and easy layups. Moon does not have the necessary ball handling skills to create his own shots and thus he often takes two or three dribbles and settles for a pass or a tough fadeaway shot. On some teams in this league, Moon would only be playing during blowout games or close to the end of the season when bench players sometimes start the last few games.

Anthony Parker is a hustler. This description of him is two-fold. A hustler in the way that he plays hard and never lets his offensive game affect his effort on the d-side. You can always count on him to guard the toughest and best wing players from opposing teams. He is also a hustler in the sense that his hard work and ethics on defence has been fooling us for a while that he is actually a better defender than he truly is. He is not playing any tricks on us with his personality. In actuality, it's his physical capabilities that has had us bamboozled for the last few years now. Put him on a good team and he is the first or second guy coming of the bench. He is the guy that comes in for mismatch purposes. The offense for defense substitute in the final moments of a close game. Parker is a valuable player but should not be starting. He should be key role player on most teams in this league.

Jason Kapono is a tough one to analyze. His ability to shoot really well makes him good enough to start on most teams but his unwillingness to shoot at will and his liability on the defensive end makes me think otherwise. I should note that Kapono has had a resurgence recently since Sam Mitchell got fired and Jay Triano (the interim bench boss) inserted him in the starting lineup. He is shooting more and is playing a smarter brand of basketball. I guess Triano has figured out a way to use Kapono without giving too much away on the defensive end. I have noticed that most of the time, the plan is to funnel Kapono's man to the centre of the court which results in a pass out without drawing the bigs too far from the basket. This strategy works at times but still allows the opposing team to swing the ball to the top of the key and subsequently to the corner for a wide open three. Kapono would be more effective as a starter if Moon was not the incumbent wing player beside him.

I am not going to over-analyze Andrea Bargnani. I am simply convinced that his up, and mostly down performance is rooted in his personality and mentality rather than his skill set. It's obvious that he still has room for improvement but I think he needs to see a sports psychologist (preferably an Italian speaking one) that will figure out a way to bring out the fiery Italian in him. Yes, I am stereotyping here but Bargnani needs to play with the same passion that Italians are known for.

How in the world does Bryan Colangelo keep telling himself that these guys named above, along with the rest of the Raps mostly inept bench squad are good enough to make the playoffs? Reality bites and it sometimes bites really hard and often leaves a nasty mark. Unless Colangelo makes a trade or two, the bite marks on the squad this season will have them missing the playoffs. This will be nasty and upsetting because most fans have bought into the high expectations that was created by Colangelo and partially, the media. On that note, I feel it's up to me to temper the high expectation. Thus, I have changed my prediction for our beloved Raptors.

My new prediction: 33-49 (yah, I simply flipped it. What?!?!?)

Sportacularly yours,

The Vicarious Athlete