'09 NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Finals Analysis/Predictions

It is really nice to see that the Orlando Magic finally played up to their skill level for a full forty eight minutes last night in game seven against the Boston Celtics.
Why did I pick the Celtics to win the series? Well, the one and only reason is not because I thought the C's were a better team without Kevin Garnett to beat the Magic but rather because Orlando is much like the Los Angeles Lakers in the sense that they both have a Jekyl and Hyde complex to their overall team personality. Both are very good teams that are stacked and should be putting other teams like the Celtics (sans KG) and Rockets (sans Yao Ming) away relatively easy. But for some reason they (Magic and Lakers) have been displaying a tendency to play horribly at times.

I find it utterly amazing that the four remaining teams in this years playoffs can be paired up in twos when it comes to their playing personalities. I have already alluded to the fact that Lakers and Magic are similar with their off and on play. The Cleveland Cavaliers and the Denver Nuggets are quite the opposite of them. Cleveland and Denver have relatively played at a consistent level so far. The Cavs swept the Atlanta Hawks (their second sweep in a row), while the Nuggets disposed of the Dallas Mavericks in five games. Both teams have been able to impose their will on their opponents and have won most of their games by double digits.

With the Conference Finals about to start on Tuesday, the question I have is, which team tendency/personality will be most dominant. Will the Lakers and Magic continue to play poorly at times. Will they turn it on just enough to win a series, much like the game sevens last night in which they both played really well. Will Denver and Cleveland be dominant in their respective series against the inconsistent two?

Here's what I think will happen in the West. My Eastern Conference analysis/prediction will be out by Wednesday morning.

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
1. Los Angeles vs 2. Denver
In the back of my head, I am thinking that it would have been a better situation for the Denver Nuggets if the Lakers had won their series in five or six games. The fact that Kobe and his team mates had to dig deep in order to put the Houston Rockets away, means the Lakers have woken up and realized how good they are when firing on all cylinders. We all know that fear and a good kick in the butt can motivate us to take a step back and re-evaluate our approach to our situation. After cruising by the Utah Jazz in five games, the Lakers became lackadaisical in their approach against the Rockets. When the Rockets lost Yao Ming at the end of game three, a game in which they took bad shots and did not play good defense. The Lakers performance in the next game was absolutely bizarre for every one that was watching it. Their loss in game four was the much needed kick in the butt. They woke up for game five by blowing out Houston with a forty point margin. Fortunately, they lost game six......yes, I said fortunately!!! I say this because their inability to close out the Rockets in game six resulted in their elevated play in game seven.

Will game seven be the launching pad that the Lakers need in order for them beat the Nuggets?

Carmelo Anthony is flat out the best scorer in the league. I will give you guys a little while to let that sink in.............I hope that was enough time. I did not say best player. I said best scorer. Kobe can knock down his shots when he needs to. Lebron can simply out muscle almost anyone to get his shot. D-Wade does too much dribbling to get his shot and is still not much of a shooter. Carmelo Anthony is way more smoother and polished as a scorer than his counterparts. Nobody uses the jab step better than he does. His elevation and point of shot release is near perfect. If you have been paying attention like I have; you will notice that he almost never fades away for his shots. He simply uses his dribble to effectively create space and then just goes straight up for his shot.

This is not about Carmelo though. The reason I seem to be pouring out adoration for him has a more to do with how his team is a lot like him in the scoring department. The Nuggets score effortlessly against most defenses. The efficiency of Melo's Jab step brings to mind the efficiency of his supporting cast of players. Chris "Birdman" Anderson, J.R Smith and Anthony Carter are about as efficient as it gets. They play with high intensity at all times and have caused havoc on both sides of the court. Nene and Kenyon Martin are two of the most physical post defenders in the league. Dahntay Jones has surprised many people with his shooting but it's no surprise that it's his defense that will earn him the task of guarding Kobe in this series. Jones is very athletic and a good defender but the possibility of going head to head with Kobe is a daunting task. Good luck Dahntay!!!

The Lakers might have gotten the rude awakening that they needed and they will be determined not to play like they did in the Houston series. Denver has had problems with defense in the past but they have always been a good offensive team. So far, in this years playoffs, they have been tough on all facets of their defensive game. If Martin can make Dirk Nowitzki work really hard for every point that he gets, then how in the world is Pau Gasol (who is not as polished offensively as Dirk) going to be able to help the Lakers in the post. Andrew Bynum can't seem to stay out of foul trouble. Although he is much taller than Nene, I think that Nene's physical style of play will render the young Bynum helpless for the Lakers cause. Chauncey Billups is way too savvy and way too good at his job to let the recent success of the Nuggets to get in their heads. He will make sure that they are well prepared for this battle. I know Kobe is great and the Lakers "can" be explosive but the Nuggets are almost always explosive. Scoring comes naturally to the Nuggets and defense is finally something they pay a lot of attention to.
My Prediction: Nuggets win series 4-3

Sportacularly yours,

The Vicarious Athlete