2009 NBA Playoffs: My First Round Predictions

Saturday, April 18th will mark the beginning of the NBA's second and most important season. The one that determines who gets the trophy with the golden ball and all the shiny rings. The one that every player wants to get to....well, almost every player. Players from the Clippers, Thunder, Grizzlies and Kings probably knew from the beginning of training camp they were playing just eighty two games this season.

Without any further delay and any more silly attempts of witty quips from yours truly. I present to you my complete first round predictions for the 2009 NBA Playoffs:

Note: I decided to do just the first round for the sole purpose of not being too shamed when half of my predictions don't pan out for the second round!!!

EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Cleveland vs 8.Detroit
Lebron James and his band of merry men are on a mission this season. Their showcasing antics have drawn the ire of many of their opponents but it has not affected their spectacular level of play. I personally think that the "loosey goosey" attitude is the reason why they have played their way to the best record in the league. They know they are good and are simply having fun while kicking butts. Especially at home where the are 39 - 2.
Detroit in my opinion is a team that is simply trying to convince themselves that they have the experience to get past the Cavaliers. The blunt truth is they know deep down that they blew it when Mr. Big Shot Billups was traded for Allen Iverson.
Prediction: Cleveland win series 4-1

2. Boston vs 7. Chicago
News came out today that Kevin Garnett might not be healthy enough to play any games during this playoffs. To an untrained eye, it might seem like a big advantage for the very young and inexperienced Bulls. I think you can predict where I am going with is. Lindsay Hunter, Brad Miller and Tim Thomas are the only players with ten or more years of league experience. Aside from the three aforementioned vets, this team is very wet behind the ears. The Celtics will win this series without KG because they are a much better defensive squad than the Bulls...but I think that this will be a closer battle than most people realize. These guys are young, athletic with something or maybe nothing to prove. It depends on your perspective. I think they will be this years Atlanta Hawks that shocked the Celtics by pushing them to seven games.
Prediction: Celtics win series 4-2

3. Orlando vs 6. Philadelphia
Orlando might have a shot blocking phenom in Dwight Howard but they are not a strong defensive team. Although the 76ers limped into the playoffs by losing six out of their last seven games, they are still very much a dangerous team for the Magic to face. With that said, the difference maker in this series will be three point field goals. Orlando is one of the best teams in takes and makes this season. Philly has good transition defense but will definitely struggle in the half court sets. A team like the Magic will use this to their advantage by swinging the ball around for open threes. Too much threes and too much Howard. The only way the 76ers win a game is when...not if but when, the Magic give a game away by playing poorly. Coach Stan Van Gundy knows this about his team and should be prepared for them to lose a game they should have won.
Prediction: Orlando win series 4-1

4. Atlanta vs 5. Miami
This series is hands down the most exciting series for me. Dwayne Wade is playing like a Martian. Yes, I'm about to get corny with this. He is playing out of this world. He is the league MVP in my eyes. Only player in NBA history to have recorded at least 2,000 points, 500 assists, 150 steals and 100 blocks in a season. This series is not just about Wade though because he is surrounded by players that are simply overachieving right now. Players Like Daequan Cook and Mario Chalmers were not expected to be playing this well at this level. With Wade causing havoc to any and almost all defenses, guys like Udonis Haslem and Michael Beasley will have to keep playing just as well as they have been all season. Maybe even more because the Hawks have proven that they're a tough out in the playoffs. The Hawks will be going into this series as the team favored to win. It will be ironic if the Heat become the reincarnate version of the Hawks from last years playoffs. This series is a coin toss to me because I think it will go to seven games.
Prediction: Miami win series 4-3

WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Los Angeles vs 8. Utah
Two hall of fame coaches. Check! Two perennial all star power forwards/centers. Check! Two often underachieving forwards but sometimes stellar performers. Check! Two supporting casts that know their role and play it well. Check! The point I am trying to make here is to separate the x-factors in this series. Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum for the Lakers. Deron Williams for the Jazz. These players stand out because their is no player on either teams that can guard them. Kobe all by himself is enough to put the Lakers over most teams but he does not need to perform any heroics in this series. Gasol will play well and so will Odom and the rest of the supporting cast. Deron will not be able to impose his will enough to squeeze out an upset but he will post some spectacular numbers in this series.
Prediction: Lakers win series 4-0

2. Denver vs 7. New Orleans
More than any other series in this playoffs, this two teams will have to find a way to win on the opponents home court in order to move on to the next round. The Hornets have more fight in them because of Chris Paul and I can see them stealing a win in Denver. Even though the Nuggets have Chauncey Billups to provide a calming and steady influence for this erratic team, they will lose this series because of lack of defense. I guess I should call them "_enver".
Prediction: New Orleans win series 4-2

3. San Antonio vs 6. Dallas
Jason Kidd is still a very good point guard in this league but just not as good a defensive guard as he used to be. With that said, how is he going to stop Tony Parker from running all over the court; scoring at will. Jason Terry is the ex-factor for the Mavericks. Dirk is their best player but crunch time belongs to the kid they call J.E.T. Tim Duncan is a little hobbled but he will still destroy and out play Erick Dampier. The addition of Drew Gooden gives the Spurs a definite advantage. If Dallas coach Rick Carlisle is smart, he will give Jose Barea more minutes so that he can return the favor to Parker. Jose can run all over the court while putting pressure on Tony and possibly get him in foul trouble. This will give Dallas a better chance of winning. I said better chance though! Even without Manu Ginobili, I think the Spurs have enough of everything else to get it done.
Prediction: San Antonio win series 4-3

4. Portland vs 5. Houston
For biased reasons only, I'd want Houston to make it to the NBA Finals. They were my favorite team before Toronto gave birth to the Raptors. Realistically though, I think it will be very difficult for the Rockets to get past a team with the talent makeup that the Trailblazers possess. Houston is hands down the better defensive team but Portland is the type of team that can explode with their athleticism and run their opponents off the court. Houston will prefer to play a game with scoring in the eighties and Portland would like the score to be in the nineties and above. Yao Ming will keep the foul prone Greg Oden in foul trouble. After Oden, it's the tough and underrated Joel Przybilla that will be guarding Yao. Same results. Enthusiasm and the City of Portland will give the Blazers a good boost on the court but that will probably only last for the second quarter of the first game.
Prediction: Houston win series 4-2

So there you have it. If I come out of this with a close to perfect prediction record, then I can confidently call myself a pundit!!!

Sportacularly yours,

The Vicarious Athlete

MVP-DS Part 2 of 14

First things first, I refuse to comment or blog on the dismal performance of my Raptors against the New Jersey Nets a couple of days ago. Hurts too much! Way too much!!!

Lebron James is not getting a vote in this installment of my Most Valuable Player-Decider System. I know his numbers are great. His numbers will always be great and his team has a 10-3 record but as I stated in the first installment of the MVP-DS, team record will not be a factor until the end of the season.
I'll briefly revisit it for you. If a players team does not make the playoffs or has an horrendous team record close to the end of the season, then he loses his votes. Obviously if a player has astronomical numbers but his team goes 0-6 during a voting stretch, then the result is no votes. What I am using as a main criteria for getting votes is the players stats and also the amount of supporting cast that the player has. LBJ is averaging 29ppg, 8rpg, 7asg and 1spg. Yeah, I know those are great numbers but the reason he gets no votes is that fact that his team can survive a bad game from him. Also important to getting left off this list is the fact that he is not filling the stats sheet in the blocks department. At 6'8, I guess I expect more from him in that department. You will see as you read this blog that a close friend of LBJ whom is way shorter is filling up the stats in the blocks department.

I think I have spent enough time on someone that's not getting a vote. On to the candidates.........

Is there anyone at this junction into the 08/09 NBA season that's more valuable to his team that Dwayne Wade. The simple answer is no!!! The Miami Heat should not be 7-6 and sitting in third place in the southeast standings. After seeing D-Wades performance in the Olympics, I was convinced that he would be unstoppable this season. I figured he would score a ton of points but the fact that he is currently averaging a career high in three categories is the main reason why he is the first on the list of candidates. Twenty-nine points per game seats him in the second spot for the league lead but the shocking stat is the 2bpg. At 6 foot 4 and being a shooting guard, the blocks are a revelation that his resurgence as an elite player, after an injury filled 07/08 season, is complete. Wade has also upped his steals(2.4) and assist(8). He goes to the charity stripe at a clip of eight times per game. I admit that he could improve on his ft percentage from seventy seven to around eighty percent but there is no other player in the league that is doing more for his team at this juncture in the season.


The second player to get a vote is Chris Paul. Lets talk about efficiency for a second here. CP3 is averaging three less shots per game this season but has managed to maintain his 21 point average from last season. He is currently shooting 53 percent from the field and is leading the league with averages 12 assist and 3 steals per game. CP3 has averaged in double digits in the assist department in every game except for two and has had a steal for the 96th consecutive game, this is only nine short of the NBA record of 105 set by Alvin Robertson. Paul had a triple-double for the first time this season in yesterdays win over the woeful Oklahoma Thunder.

The best power forward in the game right now is Chris Bosh! I'm not going to make the mistake of leaving him off the list this time. How could I anyway. The proof is in the pudding......and CB4's game is nice like chocolate pudding. Ahem, I know that was lame but I don't care. Tell me of any forward in the game right now that has the arsenal of offensive weapons that Bosh possesses. I say he edges even Kevin Garnett by a small margin. A career high of 27 points and 11 rebounds per game makes him one of the best players in the game right now.

I am going to go off the MVP rant a little here. A couple of days ago, while watching the half-time show on NBA TV, former Raptor Jalen Rose made a bold statement that he claims was provided by "some very credible sources." He stated that Lebron James and Chris Bosh are going to sign with the New York Knicks in 2010. He repeated it several times and got even more confident each time he said it. I am left with this conclusion that Rose is either trying to establish himself as an NBA insider a la Peter Vescey, so he is throwing out bold but baseless statements or he actually has managed to get an inside scope on this matter. Ever if it's fact or fabrication, it's not something that I am pleased to hear. After the Knicks traded Jamal Crawford, Zack Randolph and Mardy Colins a couple of days ago, New York has now cleared around US$27 million in salary-cap space for 2010. Folks, that is enough to sign both LBJ and CB4. Now consider how much they will have when they finally trade or buy-out the problematic Stephon Marbury. As a Bosh/Raptor fan, this worries me, BIG TIME!!!

Back to the votes. The second installment votes go to Dwayne Wade, Chris Paul and Chris Bosh.

Here's the tally:

Chris Paul - 2 votes
Chris Bosh - 2 votes
Dwayne Wade - 2 votes
Lebron James - 1 vote
Dwight Howard - 1 vote
Kobe Bryant - 0 votes

Sportacularly yours,

The Vicarious Athlete

My NBA: MVP-Decider System (MVP-DS). Part 1 of 14.

Is it too early to start the race for the league MVP?

Nope!!!

CP3 is one of the players leading the way for MVP considerations; at least in my opinion. After six games into the 08/09 NBA season, his averages are:

21.3ppg, 5.2rpg, 11.7apg and 3.3stg

A strong case can be made for Joe Johnson and Carlos Boozer. Heck, I would even toss my man Chris Bosh in there. After all, a winning team record is one of the main criteria in deciding whom the MVP designation belongs.

In order to make it more fun for myself, I have come up with my own way of determining the leagues most valuable player.

Every six games, I will evaluate players and their performance during that small period of time. Team record during the six game period will play a role but performance will be considered high and above all. Team record will only come into heavy play at the end of the season. In this case, if a player gets more votes in my system but his team does not make the playoffs, then he will get stripped of the award. The player with the second most votes and also has a playoff bound team will be declared the winner. In case of a tie...........I'LL JUST FLIP A COIN!!!

Nah, I'm just kidding. Overall team record will come into play and if there is another tie, then I'll really flip a coin!!!

All in all, the player that gets the most votes after 82 games, with my evaluation system, should be the league MVP. This means that each player has a potential of getting 14 MVP votes.

(82 divided by 6 equals 13.6. Round that up and you get the magical number 14)


It will be an almost impossible task for any one player to garner all 14 votes. This is because of the caliber all the players that are in contention for the award this year. The only time I can say a player would have earned all 14 votes in my system would be in 1961-62 when Oscar Robertson average a triple double for the entire season. Wilt Chamberlain obviously gets a node also but his average or 50 points and 25 rebounds per game were rivaled by Bill Russel's 19ppg and 24rpg. This debate can go on forever because of Wilt's scoring average but I make this argument that outside of Russel, there were no other "good-enough" centers that could contend with the Stilt on a nightly basis. Robertson on the other hand had to face great players almost on a game by game basis.

Getting carried away here! Back to my "MVP-Decider System." Right now, I would say that it's a four way tie. I have already made a case for Chris Paul. Here are the other three guys that are in the running at this point:

Lebron James: 28ppg, 9rpg, 7apg, 1bpg and 1spg
Dwayne Wade: 26ppg, 7rpg, 8apg, 3bpg and 2spg
Dwight Howard: 22ppg, 14rpg, 4bpg and 1spg

So after 6 games; according to my "MVP-DS": CP3, LBJ, DWade, and Superman2 all have 1(one) vote each. I hope that after another 6 game set, there will be a little bit of distinction between these players. Heck, another player might just outplay them. I hope so!!!

Be on the look out for thirteen more of these to determine whom the 08/09 NBA's Most Valuable Player will be.

Sportacularly yours,

The Vicarious Athlete


NOTE: The "MVP-Decider System" or" MVP-DS"; in relation to the NBA most valuable player award is a trademarked creation of The Vicarious Athlete and thus the name and the ideology behind it cannot be used without permission and written consent.

The NBA Supertar Pedigree: Born, Made or Nurtured

There's no league like the NBA........and it's love of promoting it's stars.

Don't get me wrong, I know and understand that it's all part of what is simply "sports marketing 101". It's a very simple concept people. You choose a select but small group of individuals to champion, wear, carry or represent a product. As opposed to promoting the product on it's own; as a whole. It's the type of marketing that you can find being used by various companies. I am pretty sure that the Cologne/Perfume industry would have suffered if it didn't rely heavily on a small group of celebrities in their ads.

I am not bashing or condemning the idea of marketing the few to sell to many. The truth is that it works. It just point blank works! The reason I am writing this blog is that I wonder if this will eventually come back to bite the league in it's lucrative backside. What if a team like the Sacramento Kings play inspired team ball and come out of the west to play a team like the Indiana Pacers. Wait, wait. Hold your mental tongue there for a second. I know the west is stacked and it would be a definite miracle if the Kings............correct that, way more than a miracle if the Kings were to make the finals. But humor me for half a second here. Whom would the league use in their finals marketing spree. Lets just forget about using Ron Artest. Way too much chemical imbalance in his brain to be chosen. Translation: He's too unpredictable!
Further translation: He's crazy!

I guess a good marketer can market anything, so lets say the league uses Brad Miller and Kevin Martin. Two clean cut and marketable players. I know, I know. Brad Miller is no Tim Duncan or Amare Stoudamire and Kevin Martin is no Manu Ginobili or Steve Nash. In my opinion, Miller is a hands down a better shooter and arguably a better passer than the the other two forward/centers in comparison. The question here is if Miller would play at a level worthy of being called a star.

The leagues marketing eye was on Duncan and Stoudamire from the moment their names were called by David Stern on their respective draft nights. In my opinion, I think that this type of attention added to the confidence and maybe the work ethic of both Duncan and Stoudamire. I know most athletes want to be great and work towards the goal of getting both personal and team success. What if the lack of attention made a certain athlete like........lets say Brad Miller, do 10 wind sprints but "might" have pushed himself to do 5 more if he was getting some marketing love from the league.

I know there is no way to actually measure such an effect. I liken it to a raising children. Lets say you pay more attention to one child and tell him or her that the future is bright and stardom awaits. The other child? You tell him or her that the reason he or she did not get "the call from the referee is because: you are not a star in this league. That's a call that stars like Lebron James and Dwayne Wade get". Get the point!!! Complacency sets in. In this case, Brad Miller is that child that the league did not promote. He is a stand in for all the good that could have been better, or maybe even great players in the league. Past and present.

Lebron James. Dwayne Wade. Carmelo Anthony! Add Dwight Howard to that list. He solidified his place amongst the leagues brightest stars at the All star festivities this past weekend. Only thing I ask of him is to never talk about the Superman song by Soulja Boy. I know he likes the damn song but it's just not a good match to his image or the one the league marketers would like to promote since the name of the song is "Crank that Ho". Wait till David Stern listens to the lyrics.

I better get back on track here before I over-rant on another topic.

My "Sportacular" friends. I did not write this to complain or condemn the league and it's ways. Nor am I saying that Duncan and Stoudamire are not worthy of all the attention they get. I love the game and the players. I truly do love watching the "stars" rise up to the occasion and do "Sportacular" things, but I also love watching the good and so called average players do their thing. The up and coming but neglected players. I won't give you a run down of all the ones that are not getting their just recognition but I will give you five that are improving and should be looked at as part of the leagues future superstars.

Chris Kaman - Quiet and weird (less weird after cutting his shaggy hair) . A source of double doubles and 2+ blocks for many years to come. You don't have to be photogenic to be a superstar do you?

Kevin Martin - Also quiet. Very quick in the open floor. Unorthodox shooting form but it works. He goes to the charity line 8 times a game and it's not because he's a star. I can only imagine the free throw attempt totals if he ever gets tagged as one.

David Lee - Either he leaves the New York Knicks or they build around him and Jamal Crawford. Get rid of everybody else and their mama. Yes! That includes Isaiah. Lee is surprisingly a very athletic power forward/center. Should be a starter and is a good source of double doubles for many years to come.

Deron Williams - It's almost impossible to mention his name without talking about Chris Paul. Bottom line is that they are both scary good. So how come Paul is the one being labeled as an up and coming superstar. DWill's overall package mirrors that of Paul's. Both can shoot, pass and lead a team.

Josh Smith - In my opinion he has the brightest statistical future out of the bunch. Also in my opinion, the best player on the Atlanta Hawks. Especially now that he is improving on his outside touch (all the way to the 3 point line). He is rounding out to be a very complete basketball player. I predict that he will one day average 25ppg, 11rpg, 6apg and 3bpg. He'll also have percentages of 46% on field goals and 83% on free throws. Now, those are superstar numbers to me. I have not even mentioned his athleticism and jaw dropping dunks.

My point is that the league has a bright future and should include more players like the ones I mentioned above in their superstar labeling agenda. If you won't market them as superstars, at least pay more marketing attention to them. You never know how many more wind sprints you might make them do.

Don't stop marketing the superstars you have now. Just broaden the list a little.

Sportacularly yours,

The Vicarious Athlete